Chile Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
3 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) 0.85 (0.74, 0.98) 0.89 (0.78, 1.01) 0.88 (0.78, 1)
4 0.7 (0.63, 0.78) 0.7 (0.63, 0.77) 0.76 (0.67, 0.87) 0.72 (0.63, 0.81) 0.76 (0.67, 0.86)
5 0.8 (0.69, 0.9) 0.8 (0.71, 0.9) 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) 0.78 (0.68, 0.9) 0.77 (0.68, 0.88)
6 0.87 (0.76, 0.98) 0.88 (0.76, 1.01) 0.86 (0.75, 0.98) 0.83 (0.73, 0.94) 0.88 (0.79, 0.99)
7 0.91 (0.82, 1.04) 0.92 (0.82, 1.05) 0.92 (0.81, 1.03) 0.87 (0.78, 0.99) 0.89 (0.8, 0.99)
8 0.98 (0.88, 1.09) 1 (0.9, 1.11) 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) 0.92 (0.82, 1.02) 0.97 (0.88, 1.08)
92 0.53 (0.46, 0.91) 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) 1.09 (0.9, 1.31) 0.96 (0.78, 1.15) 0.89 (0.75, 1.05)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
3 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
4 0.798 0.000 0.202 0.000
5 0.747 0.000 0.253 0.000
6 0.000 0.526 0.000 0.474
7 0.810 0.051 0.000 0.138
8 0.234 0.559 0.000 0.207
92 0.919 0.000 0.000 0.081

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
3 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 G00_99_SY 0.9450117 pandemic 0.0120516
4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.0271478 K35 0.0241188
5 B34 0.9014518 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.8242516 A41 0.1125708
6 E00_99 0.1871422 N39 0.1781694 A41 0.1701860
7 A41 0.5172670 L00_99 0.2419201 I00_99 0.1840033
8 C00_D48 0.9229711 ach_noj 0.5553962 I00_99 0.5003642
92 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.8346626

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
3 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) cJ20_J22 1 0.86 (0.72, 0.96) G00_99_SY 0.95 0.85 (0.65, 0.95) pandemic 0.01 0.85 (0.67, 0.95)
4 0.7 (0.63, 0.77) cJ20_J22 1 0.73 (0.59, 0.85) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.03 0.71 (0.59, 0.83) K35 0.02 0.68 (0.57, 0.79)
5 0.8 (0.71, 0.9) B34 0.9 0.81 (0.7, 1.08) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.82 0.81 (0.7, 1.15) A41 0.11 0.81 (0.7, 1.13)
6 0.88 (0.76, 1.01) E00_99 0.19 0.89 (0.72, 1.01) N39 0.18 0.88 (0.71, 1.01) A41 0.17 0.89 (0.71, 1.03)
7 0.92 (0.82, 1.05) A41 0.52 0.95 (0.85, 1.14) L00_99 0.24 0.94 (0.85, 1.17) I00_99 0.18 0.95 (0.85, 1.1)
8 1 (0.9, 1.11) C00_D48 0.92 0.99 (0.89, 1.12) I00_99 0.5 0.99 (0.88, 1.11) D50_89 0.19 0.99 (0.88, 1.12)
92 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) cJ20_J22 1 0.8 (0.68, 1.21) P00_99 1 0.8 (0.67, 1.15) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.83 0.79 (0.67, 1)

Plots

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## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

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92