Synthetic Controls
Report generated Monday, July 23, 2018
Chile Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) | 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) | 0.85 (0.74, 0.98) | 0.89 (0.78, 1.01) | 0.88 (0.78, 1) |
| 4 | 0.7 (0.63, 0.78) | 0.7 (0.63, 0.77) | 0.76 (0.67, 0.87) | 0.72 (0.63, 0.81) | 0.76 (0.67, 0.86) |
| 5 | 0.8 (0.69, 0.9) | 0.8 (0.71, 0.9) | 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) | 0.78 (0.68, 0.9) | 0.77 (0.68, 0.88) |
| 6 | 0.87 (0.76, 0.98) | 0.88 (0.76, 1.01) | 0.86 (0.75, 0.98) | 0.83 (0.73, 0.94) | 0.88 (0.79, 0.99) |
| 7 | 0.91 (0.82, 1.04) | 0.92 (0.82, 1.05) | 0.92 (0.81, 1.03) | 0.87 (0.78, 0.99) | 0.89 (0.8, 0.99) |
| 8 | 0.98 (0.88, 1.09) | 1 (0.9, 1.11) | 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) | 0.92 (0.82, 1.02) | 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) |
| 92 | 0.53 (0.46, 0.91) | 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) | 1.09 (0.9, 1.31) | 0.96 (0.78, 1.15) | 0.89 (0.75, 1.05) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 4 | 0.798 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.000 |
| 5 | 0.747 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.000 |
| 6 | 0.000 | 0.526 | 0.000 | 0.474 |
| 7 | 0.810 | 0.051 | 0.000 | 0.138 |
| 8 | 0.234 | 0.559 | 0.000 | 0.207 |
| 92 | 0.919 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.081 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | G00_99_SY | 0.9450117 | pandemic | 0.0120516 |
| 4 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.0271478 | K35 | 0.0241188 |
| 5 | B34 | 0.9014518 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.8242516 | A41 | 0.1125708 |
| 6 | E00_99 | 0.1871422 | N39 | 0.1781694 | A41 | 0.1701860 |
| 7 | A41 | 0.5172670 | L00_99 | 0.2419201 | I00_99 | 0.1840033 |
| 8 | C00_D48 | 0.9229711 | ach_noj | 0.5553962 | I00_99 | 0.5003642 |
| 92 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.8346626 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.82 (0.75, 0.88) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.86 (0.72, 0.96) | G00_99_SY | 0.95 | 0.85 (0.65, 0.95) | pandemic | 0.01 | 0.85 (0.67, 0.95) |
| 4 | 0.7 (0.63, 0.77) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.73 (0.59, 0.85) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.03 | 0.71 (0.59, 0.83) | K35 | 0.02 | 0.68 (0.57, 0.79) |
| 5 | 0.8 (0.71, 0.9) | B34 | 0.9 | 0.81 (0.7, 1.08) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.82 | 0.81 (0.7, 1.15) | A41 | 0.11 | 0.81 (0.7, 1.13) |
| 6 | 0.88 (0.76, 1.01) | E00_99 | 0.19 | 0.89 (0.72, 1.01) | N39 | 0.18 | 0.88 (0.71, 1.01) | A41 | 0.17 | 0.89 (0.71, 1.03) |
| 7 | 0.92 (0.82, 1.05) | A41 | 0.52 | 0.95 (0.85, 1.14) | L00_99 | 0.24 | 0.94 (0.85, 1.17) | I00_99 | 0.18 | 0.95 (0.85, 1.1) |
| 8 | 1 (0.9, 1.11) | C00_D48 | 0.92 | 0.99 (0.89, 1.12) | I00_99 | 0.5 | 0.99 (0.88, 1.11) | D50_89 | 0.19 | 0.99 (0.88, 1.12) |
| 92 | 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.8 (0.68, 1.21) | P00_99 | 1 | 0.8 (0.67, 1.15) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.83 | 0.79 (0.67, 1) |
Plots
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## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
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